A Year of Changing Super Bowl Odds

NFL odds

As soon as one Super Bowl is over, there are NFL odds posted on the next Super Bowl, giving you a full year to place your bets.

The NFL has become a 12-month league, which means we love talking about it for 12 months, and overreacting to free agent signings, draft picks, and injuries. It makes for an entertaining year, and a Super Bowl odds graph that looks like an EKG.

Green Bay Packers (+380)

Entering the playoffs the Packers were the obvious favorite. At 13-4 they have the best record in the NFL, they are the top seed in the NFC, and they have the presumed MVP in Aaron Rodgers.

Following Super Bowl LV the Packers were paying +900 to win Super Bowl LVI. They got up to +1600 in April and May, when there was uncertainty about the future of Rodgers. 

When the season kicked off they were down to +1200, and the march to the top seed finishally saw them taking the lead at the end of December.

Kansas City Chiefs (+450)

As soon as the Chiefs were done losing in Super Bowl LV, they were made the favorites to win Super Bowl LVI at +550. And even through the month of September, when the Chiefs were losing, they stayed as the favorite. Kansas City didn’t lose that designation until after their loss to Buffalo in October, and they fell all the way to +1300 after their October 24 loss to Tennessee.

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The road back to the top began the next week, and after eight straight wins the Chiefs were once again among the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Their loss to Cincinnati in Week 17 dropped them behind the Packers, but Kansas City remains the favorite among all AFC teams.

Buffalo Bills (+750)

The Bills were the AFC runner-up last season, losing the AFC Championship Game to the Chiefs. And when the Super Bowl odds were first released last February, they were ranked second in the AFC behind Kansas City.

For Buffalo, anything less than a trip to the Super Bowl would be considered a failure. They are a team ready to take that next step. The betting public began to believe in late October, with the Bills moving to the top of the pack at +500 following their Halloween win over Miami.

The next week, however, Buffalo lost to Jacksonville. Two weeks later they were dominated by the Colts. And since that game they have been behind Kansas City.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+800)

They are the defending Super Bowl champions, and they returned their entire Super Bowl-winning team. But at no point during the offseason were the Buccaneers the favorite to repeat as champs.

It wasn’t until September that they tied for the top spot, and finally in October Tom Brady and company became the betting favorites to win in Los Angeles this February. Tampa Bay stayed as the favorites until mid-December, when injuries and the exodus of Antonio Brown severely depleted their roster.

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Heading into the playoffs the Bucs ranked fourth in Super Bowl betting, and second in the NFC.

Tennessee Titans (+850)

The Titans are the number one seed in the AFC and they are getting Derrick Henry back for the playoffs following their first round bye. Yet still they are only fifth in Super Bowl betting, and only third in the AFC. They also have head-to-head wins against the two AFC teams ahead of them.

The Titans were at +2800 when the offseason began, and no one really considered them to be a threat. They stayed there throughout most of the spring and early summer, moving up to +2500 after trading for Julio Jones.

Early in the season they still didn’t impress, and the Titans actually saw their odds drop to +3400 after an October loss to the Jets. Consecutive wins over Buffalo, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and the Rams, did little to change the perception, because also during that stretch they lost Henry to a broken foot.

Tennessee got as high as +1200 in the middle of November, but losses to the Texans and Patriots dropped them all the way to +2600, and only the return of A.J. Brown was enough to get them into the top-five by playoff time.